Prof. Dr.-Ing. Götz-Andreas Kemmner, Abels & Kemmner GmbH
At first glance, sales forecasting looks easy for aerospace industry suppliers. After all, they have access to quite regularly updated and very longterm demand forecasts as well as to the so-called cadences of the major aircraft manufacturers, which provide information on the expected number of individual aircraft models to be built each month. On closer inspection, however, the seemingly uncomplicated forecasting circumstances turn out to be significantly more complex, uncertain and incomplete than one might think, as forecasting horizons and formats often vary from manufacturer to manufacturer, forecast quality fluctuates, or real orders and forecasting periods overlap. If the aim is to turn the patchwork of CSV files, Excel tables and PDFs into an organizationally and technically simple overall concept that provides consistent, automatic, and rolling 24-month demand forecasts where key parameters are calculated and controlled automatically, attempting to do this in Excel is not recommended. Rather, professional tools should be used as they can massively reduce the complex planning effort.